Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Alternative Growth ScenariosQuantifying the Costs and Benefits of Alternative Growth Scenarios

This report has been prepared for Halifax Regional Municipality by Stantec Consulting Limited to summarize the approaches applied to allocate residential growth in HRM consistent with four prescribed scenarios and the effects of such allocations on the use and requirement for public and private services within the region. This final report includes economic and environmental analysis of the impacts of alternative growth scenarios as well as a high level health impact assessment. The adoption of the Regional Municipal Planning Strategy (RMPS) in 2006 was a major step forward for HRM. The RMPS examined the region as a whole and created a framework for its future development. A key element of this framework was precisely stated goals for the distribution of regional growth among three areas shown on Figure 1.1 within the region as follows: The citizens of HRM have indicated through consultation that a balanced approach to growth across the Municipality is the desired approach. To achieve this, approximately 25 per cent of growth will be targeted to occur on the Halifax Peninsula and in downtown Dartmouth, inside the Circumferential Highway (Regional Centre), approximately 50 per cent will occur in the Suburban Area, and the remaining 25 per cent will occur within the Rural Areas. This is consistent with projected housing demand in HRM. The distribution of growth experienced since adoption of the plan has, however, diverged from this allocation with only 16 per cent of new dwelling units being added in the Regional Centre, while the remaining 84 per cent have been built in Suburban and Rural Areas, suggesting that sprawl has yet to be significantly curbed. HRM is seeking to demonstrate the potential benefits of achieving or exceeding the RMPS goal by comparing the different goals for development within the region. Results of our analysis clearly show the benefits of concentrating new residential development. For nearly all services assessed, the best distribution scenario is Scenario B in which the maximum proportion (50 per cent) of new development is located in the Regional Centre.